Effective models for prediction

Patterns exist throughout nature. We see them in seasons and tides as well as in animal and human behavior. Patterns are generally observed after the fact. To identify patterns in advance is the science and art of prediction. Predictions are probabilities or likelihoods, not absolutes. For instance, what is the likelihood that it will be sunny tomorrow? Or what is the chance (that is, probability) of rain? In order to predict patterns in nature, we create models. Models are representations of what we are studying or trying to predict. The better a model corresponds to the reality it represents, the more its predictive power. Effective models enable us to peer into the future.